Sunday, February 15, 2009

The Fall of the U.S.A and Mr. Celente

From Russia Today - video:

My thoughts on Celente's prediction of immanent doom for the U.S.

Sure, Mr. Super-Doom Celente could be right in his dire forecast of the “greatest depression” but don't forget, the US dollar is backed by the biggest freakin' military the world has ever known. The creditor-nations can't really call in our debt while they are paying the U.S. cop on the beat to guard their sources of energy, food and raw materials so they have no choice but to buy our Treasuries. In a short span of, let's say, 20 years, though, while the dollar is still worth something, China will continue to use the money they’ve accumulated to build up a military equal or better than our own and they could do it alone or in an alliance with other creditor-nations.

At some point in the future then, China, with its own dominant currency, will be able to do its own world policing and won't need our dollars anymore. This is precisely why I think the U.S. maintains such a strong military presence in the around the world, especially in the Middle East and Central Asia. It is to protect the resources that back the dollar. At some point in the future there could be a military impasse resulting in an 'O.K Corral' type shootout for dominance but I don't see nation-states choosing this option unless there's a devolvement into total insanity. They would look for another alternative other than the Big Fire.

So no, Celente, in my opinion is probably not on the mark in his forecast of a near term cascading super-depression and does not make a strong case for his fear mongering. We will continue to have a global downturn of significant magnitude resulting in untold misery for billions of people. If, however, things get so out of control that the world economy begins to slide over the edge of a cliff, the creditor nations and bank holding companies will come to some sort of agreement to form a semi-dictatorial world government with a common currency. The U.S. and other debtor nations will then go into survival mode and become vassal states to that World Union.

Celente is a smart guy but I don't agree with his ultra-alarmist, immanent, econo-catastrophic scenario. He does accurately explain that economics can't be separated from party politcs, geopolitics and social movements. I also like that he views himself as a "political atheist" and views the world from a 'logical' perspective but we'll have to see if his logic is rooted in solid ground. Time will tell. In the meantime, don't panic - yet and check out Peter Schiff, head of Euro-Pacific Capital. He's not quite as upsetting.

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